Boston.com’s Conor Ryan identified three Patriots-Bears matchups ahead of New England’s Thursday night trip to Chicago: the Patriots’ run defense against the Bears’ ground game, Drake Maye’s decisions on early downs and the offensive line’s ability to protect him.
Chicago averaged 160.7 rushing yards per game, while Maye had thrown 10 touchdowns and one interception over his previous three games, according to Boston.com. The teams entered the matchup at 4-2, with Chicago’s ability to control possession and New England’s banged-up roster among the factors Ryan highlighted.
The three areas Ryan outlined connect the Patriots’ defensive effort to Maye’s opportunities on offense. Limiting the Bears’ extended drives could help keep the ball in New England’s hands, while efficient early downs could help Maye avoid the third-down situations where Chicago’s defense has been most effective.
Patriots run defense against the Bears’ rushing attack
Chicago averaged 160.7 rushing yards per game, and D’Andre Swift had 398 rushing yards and six touchdowns through six games, according to Boston.com. The outlet reported that Chicago led the NFL in rushing average, making the ground game a central part of the Bears’ offensive production under coach Ben Johnson.
Boston.com reported that the Bears also led the league in time of possession, averaging 36:01 per game. Minnesota ranked second at 33:37. The gap between those averages reflects another challenge for New England: Chicago’s rushing attack can contribute not only yards, but also sustained drives that keep the opposing offense waiting.
New England had allowed no 100-yard rushers and no runs of 20 or more yards through six games, Boston.com reported. The outlet also noted that the Patriots were one of two NFL teams yet to give up a run of at least 20 yards. Those defensive figures contrast with Chicago’s league-leading rushing average and Swift’s production through the first six games.
The Patriots had faced a difficult rushing performance from the Jets the previous week, when Braelon Allen gained 78 yards on 17 carries, according to Boston.com. Ryan’s preview pointed to short-yardage situations on third and fourth down as important opportunities for New England to prevent Chicago from extending drives. Tackling Swift and quarterback Caleb Williams would be part of limiting both the Bears’ rushing output and the time they spend with the ball.
Drake Maye’s early downs against Chicago’s defense
Maye had 10 passing touchdowns and one interception over his previous three games, according to Boston.com. His recent production is one part of a matchup Ryan framed around first and second downs, before Chicago can use third-down pressure to force longer passing situations.
“You’ve got to be good on first- and second down. I think they’re really good at getting off the field,” Maye said, according to Boston.com. He also described the Bears as using blitz looks, zone coverage and man coverage to challenge opposing quarterbacks.
Chicago ranked second in the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed at 25.8 percent and second in sack rate at 9 percent, Boston.com reported. Those rankings make the distance New England has to cover on third down a key part of the matchup: the Bears have been particularly effective at ending drives and getting pressure when opponents reach that situation.
Ryan also cited Patriots.com reporter Evan Lazar’s analysis of Chicago’s performance by down. Lazar ranked the Bears 29th in expected points added per play on first and second down, compared with fifth on third down. He also noted that Chicago allowed an explosive play on 18.4 percent of opposing drop-backs, a rate that ranked 28th in the league.
That split gives Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels a reason to seek manageable situations early in possessions while remaining willing to attack. Ryan noted that running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Corey Kiner could contribute on early carries, and that play-action passes could create chances downfield. Boston.com also pointed to A.J. Brown as a potential target after a drop-heavy performance against the Jets.
Patriots offensive line versus the Bears’ pass rush
Boston.com reported that guard Ben Brown and interior lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker were ruled out with injuries. The outlet described right tackle Morgan Moses as a question mark after an ankle injury against the Jets. Those absences leave New England facing a personnel challenge in front of Maye, particularly on the interior.
Caleb Lomu allowed no sacks, quarterback hits, pressures or hurries in 30 pass-blocking snaps against the Jets, according to Boston.com. Ryan described the rookie as a potential replacement at right tackle if Moses could not play. The outlet also reported that left tackle Will Campbell held up against the Jets, while Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor were the next options at guard to replace Brown and Vera-Tucker.
Chicago’s pass rush included Austin Booker, who had four sacks and five tackles for loss, Boston.com reported. The outlet said edge rusher Montez Sweat could miss the game because of a suspension related to the NFL’s performance-enhancing substances policy. With the Bears ranked second in sack rate, the pressure matchup extends beyond the offensive line’s injury replacements to Maye’s ability to get the ball out against Chicago’s rush.
New England did not allow a sack in its 26-19 win over the Jets, Boston.com reported. Rouse and Pryor held up in that game, while Lomu produced a clean pass-blocking line in his 30 snaps. Those performances give the Patriots recent game evidence to draw on as they prepare to face Chicago, even with Brown and Vera-Tucker ruled out.
The Patriots travel to Chicago for Thursday night’s game against the Bears, with New England’s protection, early-down offense and run defense facing the three tests Ryan identified.
